Really smart guys tell me that the second wave that I wrote about here last week is already “priced in”. Note that our calculations above omit the effects of lockdowns and social distancing on the demand side, including domestic consumption and investment, and the pandemic’s effect on global trade. Why not ‘with’?”. As soon as it got out of the airports, however, the virus went downmarket, spreading rapidly wherever people are tightly packed indoors — subways in big cities, for example. For the UK economy, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) is predicting the worst year since 1900 — a contraction of 13%. Growing up in Glasgow, my friends and I liked to quote Calimero sarcastically at anyone who complained about their lot. No. What that means, I fear, is that we may end up with the worst of both worlds: enough lockdowns to condemn us to economic depression, but not enough to avert a much higher level of mortality than we are ready for. Those who expected carnage in the low-grade, or “junk”, bond market are amazed. Well, maybe so: as my father liked to tell his children, nobody said life was going to be fair. All rights reserved. From 1990 to 1992 he was an official fellow and lecturer at Peterhouse, Cambridge. We know that at least one policy goal has been achieved. At a time when the world economy seems more Fubar than merely Snafu, it’s worth considering that it’s probably also SOL. If you are a woman, you would be appalled by the overt sexism of male conversation. And don’t get me started on the enduring hit to trade. . But that doesn’t sound like an election-winning slogan to me. “Physical isolation is chemotherapy,” he said, “and the goal is remission. One nurse has recalled the similar ways the authorities responded — at first with complacency and then by stigmatising victims (for “the Chinese virus”, read “the gay plague”). At its low point — March 23 — it was down 34%. Since February 26, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has exploded from $4.1 trillion to $6.1 trillion. Historically, most pandemics have come in more than one wave, and a second Covid-19 wave later in the year seems all too likely. So the stock market’s rally is not wholly illusory. That prediction was wrong after 2009 and it will be even more wrong in 2020. We are simultaneously a) suffering a public health disaster, with a second wave of infections and illness likely at some point when we go back to work and school; b) inflicting a deep and probably long recession on ourselves, with lockdowns that are the bluntest possible instrument for controlling contagion; and c) breaking the record for an equity market rally. Hans Holbein’s Dance of Death series makes it clear that death in the era of plague was no respecter of rank. And the US Congress has, in great haste and amid frantic horse-trading, passed legislation that commits taxpayers to writing down hundreds of billions of dollars of “loans” to businesses large and small. In a newly released interview, historian Niall Ferguson condemns what he considers a disastrously slow U.S. coronavirus response that led to widespread isolation and the economic â¦ Moreover, the legislation would appear to make more than half of American workers better off being unemployed than they would have been working. But everyone else seems oblivious. In Africa, the “ABC” — abstain, be faithful and “condomise” — approach has had limited success. Debt Is the Threat, Berlin is ignoring the lessons of the 1930s, How Africa Is Primed for Economic Take Off, ©2020 Niall Ferguson. Our estimates, based on state-by-state assessments that allow for the share of the population who can work from home, suggest a slight drop in GDP for the year’s first quarter (-1.45% quarter on quarter), followed by a lockdown-driven collapse (-10.8%) in the second quarter. “It’s true that more men are dying than women from Covid-19 around the world,” wrote Ryan Heath and Renuka Rayasam in Politico, “but that’s not exactly cause for celebration.” Not exactly? Ministers could count on the epidemiological expertise of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage). In it he deplored the punitive terms of the Versailles treaty — which imposed on Germany an unspecified but potentially vast war reparations debt — and prophesied an inflationary economic disaster, followed by a political backlash. How can we resolve this huge paradox? If all goes well, that vaccine could jump through all the scientific and regulatory hoops, go into mass production and be available some time in the second half of 2021. The OBR estimates that the UK’s public sector net borrowing will be £273bn this year — 14% of GDP — taking total public debt above 100% of GDP. He is also a visiting professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, and the Diller-von Furstenberg Family Foundation But there were 6,082 excess deaths in England and Wales in the week to April 3, 59% above the average for the corresponding week in the preceding five years. The advent of antiretroviral drugs that stop HIV carriers succumbing to Aids has somewhat diminished the fear factor. In 2002 Ferguson became the John Herzog Professor in Financial History at New York University Stern School of Business, and in 2004 he became the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvarâ¦ TED.com translations are made possible by volunteer Wherever you look, the economic data is the worst of our lifetimes. Among its recent purchases are junk bonds. Far from devastating the southern hemisphere, the disease proves a minor event in Africa. For that is the principal effect of near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing, which has led to a 60% expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Coronavirus: Aids changed us. likely to rival or exceed that of any recession in the last 150 years”, with lingering effects, potentially leading to a “global depression”. The Fed is buying all of the new government debt, though by creating excess reserves for banks, not printing dollar bills. Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Historian Niall Ferguson asks: Why the West, and less so the rest? 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